A Holistic Approach to Guide Development of Future Climate Scenarios for Water Resource Applications

Changes in climate are expected to have a substantial impact on water resources. Consequently, numerous hydrologists have studied the widely recognized challenge of using climate-change projections to address questions related to management of future water resources. Significant effort has been invested in formulating methods to overcome the difference in spatial scales between available future climate scenarios and water management needs. While numerous downscaling options exist, resource evaluation for the various approaches is rarely discussed; most assessments are focused on evaluating the skill of different methodologies. In this study, a framework is described that water managers can use 1) to identify their climate scenario needs and 2) to assess their financial, computing, time, and workforce resource limitations for climate scenario development. This framework will enable water resource managers to optimize the use of their available resources when developing future climate scenarios.