Journal
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
Volume 9, Issue 4, Pages 1889-1898Publisher
IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
DOI: 10.1109/TSTE.2018.2818727
Keywords
Solar power generation; power system simulation; uncertainty; forecasting
Categories
Funding
- European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) through GARPUR project [608540]
- European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) through NSON-DK (ForskEL) project [608540]
- European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) through Flex4RES (Nordic Energy Research) project [608540]
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The uncertainty arising from high levels of solar photovoltaic (PV) penetration can have a substantial impact on power system operation. Therefore, there is a need to develop models capable of representing PV generationin a rigorous manner. This paper introduces a novel transformation-based methodology to generate stochastic solar area power forecast scenarios; easy to apply to new locations. We present a simulation study comparing day-ahead solar forecast errors covering regions with different geographical sizes, total installed capacities, and climatic characteristics. The results show that our model can capture the spatio-temporal properties and match the long-term statistical properties of actual data. Hence, it can be used to characterize the PV input uncertainty in power system studies.
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