Modelling the 'learning divide': predicting participation in adult learning and future learning intentions 2002 to 2010

This article presents multivariate analyses of the characteristics associated with both participation in adult education and the intention to participate in future learning. It uses questionnaire data from more than 47,000 individuals collected by the National Institute of Adult Continuing Education (NIACE) over the course of nine annual surveys administered between 2002 and 2010. It reviews both recent and historical policy in the area of 'lifelong learning' and considers the findings of previous empirical research in the area. The results of the current study support previous findings suggesting that participation in 'later' learning is most strongly associated with positive 'learning dispositions' and extended participation in initial, full-time education. While other socio-economic factors were related to participation in adult learning, the explanatory power of these variables was much weaker. Despite dramatic changes in online technologies and a 'massification' of Internet access over the period studied, there was no evidence that information and communications technologies were either increasing or widening access to participation.