A Self-Adaptive Parameter Selection Trajectory Prediction Approach via Hidden Markov Models

Trajectory prediction of objects in moving objects databases (MODs) has garnered wide support in a variety of applications and is gradually becoming an active research area. The existing trajectory prediction algorithms focus on discovering frequent moving patterns or simulating the mobility of objects via mathematical models. While these models are useful in certain applications, they fall short in describing the position and behavior of moving objects in a network-constraint environment. Aiming to solve this problem, a hidden Markov model (HMM)-based trajectory prediction algorithm is proposed, called Hidden Markov model-based Trajectory Prediction (HMTP). By analyzing the disadvantages of HMTP, a self-adaptive parameter selection algorithm called HMTP* is proposed, which captures the parameters necessary for real-world scenarios in terms of objects with dynamically changing speed. In addition, a density-based trajectory partition algorithm is introduced, which helps improve the efficiency of prediction. In order to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed algorithms, extensive experiments were conducted, and the experimental results demonstrate that the effect of critical parameters on the prediction accuracy in the proposed paradigm, with regard to HMTP*, can greatly improve the accuracy when compared with HMTP, when subjected to randomly changing speeds. Moreover, it has higher positioning precision than HMTP due to its capability of self-adjustment.