Journal
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
Volume 8, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-26824-4
Keywords
-
Categories
Funding
- Agencia Nacional de Investigacion e Innovacion (ANII-Uruguay)
- Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior (CAPES-Brazil)
- Programa Nacional de Pos-Doutorado (CAPES-Brazil)
- VIROGENESIS Project as part of the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme [634650]
- Medical Research Council (MRC) of the Republic of South Africa [MRC-RFA-FSP-01-2013/UKZN HIVEPI]
Ask authors/readers for more resources
The subtype C Eastern Africa clade (CEA), a particularly successful HIV-1 subtype C lineage, has seeded several sub-epidemics in Eastern African countries and Southern Brazil during the 1960s and 1970s. Here, we characterized the past population dynamics of the major CEA sub-epidemics in Eastern Africa and Brazil by using Bayesian phylodynamic approaches based on coalescent and birth-death models. All phylodynamic models support similar epidemic dynamics and exponential growth rates until roughly the mid-1980s for all the CEA sub-epidemics. Divergent growth patterns, however, were supported afterwards. The Bayesian skygrid coalescent model (BSKG) and the birth-death skyline model (BDSKY) supported longer exponential growth phases than the Bayesian skyline coalescent model (BSKL). The BDSKY model uncovers patterns of a recent decline for the CEA sub-epidemics in Burundi/Rwanda and Tanzania (R-e < 1) and a recent growth for Southern Brazil (R-e > 1); whereas coalescent models infer an epidemic stabilization. To the contrary, the BSKG model captured a decline of Ethiopian CEA subepidemic between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s that was not uncovered by the BDSKY model. These results underscore that the joint use of different phylodynamic approaches may yield complementary insights into the past HIV population dynamics.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available