Multi-scale assessment and spatial modelling of agricultural land abandonment in a European peripheral region: Galicia (Spain), 1956-2004

The environmental, cultural and economic consequences of land use change, including abandonment of agricultural use, have been recognized for a long time. It has often been assumed that the transformations of the agricultural systems in developed countries (and particularly in Europe) took place, for the main part, in the immediate years after the Second World War. In this paper we present a review of different statistical and cartographic sources available for a peripheral region in Europe (Galicia, Spain) characterized by small-scale farming and a very fragmented property system, that suggests otherwise: modernization of agriculture apparently took place without major changes in agricultural area until the country gained access to the European Economic Community, and the effect of Common Agricultural Policy reforms during the decade of 1990 is suggested as a major driver for the net decrease of agricultural area in the region between 1956 and 2004. On the other hand, this paper emphasizes the spatial complexity of agricultural abandonment with a case study, showing a large degree of variability at municipal scale and thus the need of future EU-level projects to work at least at municipal (Local Administrative Units 2, LAU 2) level. Finally, a multinomial logistic model for observed changes is included that shows how biophysical limitations were the main drivers behind abandonment of agriculture at parcel scale, while structural qualities related to property structure were strongly associated to the incorporation of former shrublands to agricultural use. Besides, Farm Structure Surveys were revealed as an unreliable source for the assessment of changes in total agricultural area in the studied region. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.