Journal
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
Volume 9, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05230-4
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Funding
- Instituto Nacional de Ciencia e Tecnologia (INCT) em Dengue [CNPq/FAPEMIG 465425/2014-3]
- FAPEMIG
- CNPq
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The ongoing geographical expansion of dengue is inducing an epidemiological transition in many previously transmission-free urban areas, which are now prone to annual epidemics. To analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue in these settings, we reconstruct transmission chains in Porto Alegre, Brazil, by applying a Bayesian inference model to geo-located dengue cases from 2013 to 2016. We found that transmission clusters expand by linearly increasing their diameter with time, at an average rate of about 600 m month(-1). The majority (70.4%, 95% CI: 58.2-79.8%) of individual transmission events occur within a distance of 500 m. Cluster diameter, duration, and epidemic size are proportionally smaller when control interventions were more timely and intense. The results suggest that a large proportion of cases are transmitted via short-distance human movement (<1 km) and a limited contribution of long distance commuting within the city. These results can assist the design of control policies, including insecticide spraying and strategies for active case finding.
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