Journal
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
Volume 9, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05179-4
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Funding
- European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7)/ERC [278636]
- European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant [660814]
- NWO Earth and Life Sciences (ALW) [863.15.019]
- NWO-EW
- SurfSARA Computing and Networking Services
- Helmholtz graduate school GeoSim
- MAGIC-DML project through DFG [SPP 1158 (RO 4262/1-6)]
- University of Leeds HPC
- Past Earth Network (EPSRC) [EP/M008363/1]
- Marie Curie Actions (MSCA) [660814] Funding Source: Marie Curie Actions (MSCA)
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The mid-Pliocene warm period provides a natural laboratory to investigate the long-term response of the Earth's ice-sheets and sea level in a warmer-than-present-day world. Proxy data suggest that during the warm Pliocene, portions of the Antarctic ice-sheets, including West Antarctica could have been lost. Ice-sheet modelling forced by Pliocene climate model outputs is an essential way to improve our understanding of ice-sheets during the Pliocene. However, uncertainty exists regarding the degree to which results are model-dependent. Using climatological forcing from an international climate modelling intercomparison project, we demonstrate the high dependency of Antarctic ice-sheet volume predictions on the climate model-based forcing used. In addition, the collapse of the vulnerable marine basins of Antarctica is dependent on the ice-sheet model used. These results demonstrate that great caution is required in order to avoid making unsound statements about the nature of the Pliocene Antarctic ice-sheet based on model results that do not account for structural uncertainty in both the climate and ice sheet models.
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