Journal
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
Volume 9, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02565-2
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Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41630421, 41575039, 41705022, 41575038]
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [lzujbky-2017-4]
- Korea Ministry of Environment
- New Zealand Deep South National Science Challenge
- NCAS fund
- Joint UK BEIS/Defra Hadley Centre Climate Programm [GA01101]
- European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme, StratoClim project [603557]
- LABEX L-IPSL project [ANR-10-LABX-18-01]
- NZ Government's Strategic Science Investment Fund (SSIF) through the NIWA programme CACV
- New Zealand Royal Society Marsden Fund [12-NIW-006]
- Deep South National Science Challenge
- NeSI
- Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment's Research Infrastructure programme
- UK National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS)
- Bundesministerium fur Bildung und Forschung (BMBF), Germany
- NERC [ncas10008, ncas10005, ncas10003] Funding Source: UKRI
- Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) [ARQ201403009005] Funding Source: Korea Institute of Science & Technology Information (KISTI), National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS)
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/R015244/1, ncas10005, ncas10009, ncas10003, ncas10008] Funding Source: researchfish
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The Montreal Protocol has succeeded in limiting major ozone-depleting substance emissions, and consequently stratospheric ozone concentrations are expected to recover this century. However, there is a large uncertainty in the rate of regional ozone recovery in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we identify a Eurasia-North America dipole mode in the total column ozone over the Northern Hemisphere, showing negative and positive total column ozone anomaly centres over Eurasia and North America, respectively. The positive trend of this mode explains an enhanced total column ozone decline over the Eurasian continent in the past three decades, which is closely related to the polar vortex shift towards Eurasia. Multiple chemistry-climate-model simulations indicate that the positive Eurasia-North America dipole trend in late winter is likely to continue in the near future. Our findings suggest that the anticipated ozone recovery in late winter will be sensitive not only to the ozone-depleting substance decline but also to the polar vortex changes, and could be substantially delayed in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics.
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