GPS measurements of crustal deformation across the southern Arava Valley section of the Dead Sea Fault and implications to regional seismic hazard assessment

Detailed analysis of crustal deformation along the southern Arava Valley section of the Dead Sea Fault is presented. Using dense GPS measurements we obtain the velocities of new near- and far-field campaign stations across the fault. We find that this section is locked with a locking depth of 19.9 +/- 7.7 km and a slip rate of 5.0 +/- 0.8 mm/yr. The geodetically determined locking depth is found to be highly consistent with the thickness of the seismogenic zone in this region. Analysis of instrumental seismic record suggests that only similar to 1% of the total seismic moment accumulated since the last large event occurred about 800 years ago, was released by small to moderate earthquakes. Historical and paleo-seismic catalogs of this region together with instrumental seismic data and calculations of Coulomb stress changes induced by the 1995 M-w 7.2 Nuweiba earthquake suggest that the southern Arava Valley section of the Dead Sea Fault is in the late stage of the current interseismic period.