Risk Assessment for a National Renewable Energy Target Part I: Developing the Model

Around the world, renewable energy-generating systems (RES) have dramatically expanded in capacity and in energy generated. A variety of means have driven this expansion, including mandates to meet RES-based generation targets. Much of the RES-related literature has focused on improving technical aspects of performance, reducing integration barriers, or estimating benefits from increased RES generation. Little work has considered how RES technologies could satisfy mandated utility-scale generation targets. This paper proposes a quantitative risk model to estimate the probability of meeting a national RES generation target. This paper uses as a case study the United Kingdom's steps to meet its mandate under the European Union's 2009 Renewable Energy Directive. This paper presents the first part of this study by introducing the concept, the target, the approach, the data sources, and the resulting scenarios. This paper describes the model's assumptions and sensitivity analysis, concluding by summarizing the steps to complete the case study.