Journal
SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS
Volume 16, Issue 7, Pages 777-783Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2018SW001861
Keywords
space weather; operational forecasting; ensembles; frontier techniques; research to operations
Funding
- Irish Research Council Postdoctoral Fellowship Programme
- Air Force Office of Scientific Research [FA9550-17-1-039]
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The space weather community has begun to use frontier methods such as data assimilation, machine learning, and ensemble modeling to advance current operational forecasting efforts. This was highlighted by a multidisciplinary session at the 2017 American Geophysical Union Meeting, Frontier Solar-Terrestrial Science Enabled by the Combination of Data-Driven Techniques and Physics-Based Understanding, with considerable discussion surrounding ensemble techniques. Here ensemble methods are described in detail, using a set of predictions to improve on a single-model output, for example, taking a simple average of multiple models, or using more complex techniques for data assimilation. They have been used extensively in fields such as numerical weather prediction and data science, for both improving model accuracy and providing a measure of model uncertainty. Researchers in the space weather community have found them to be similarly useful, and some examples of success stories are highlighted in this commentary. Future developments are also encouraged to transition these basic research efforts to operational forecasting as well as providing prediction errors to aid end-user understanding.
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