Journal
ENERGY ECONOMICS
Volume 34, Issue -, Pages S111-S126Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.08.015
Keywords
General equilibrium; CGE; Climate policy; Sectoral aggregation; Disaggregation; Aggregation bias; Carbon leakage; Border carbon adjustments
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Estimates of the carbon leakage resulting from sub-global climate policies tend to be lower when using economy-wide general equilibrium models than what technology-specific and bottom-up models suggest. In order to test whether this difference is due to excessive sectoral aggregation, I exploit disaggregated data and estimate unobserved values to create a dataset with rich industrial sector detail. The bias caused by sectoral aggregation is estimated by calibrating a computable general equilibrium model to this dataset and comparing results with those generated from more aggregated data. A stylized unilateral carbon pricing policy is simulated. Results show that aggregated calibrations overestimate industrial output loss and underestimate the increase in the CO2 embodied in imports. The efficiency of border carbon adjustments at reducing leakage is also underestimated. However, I find that general equilibrium estimates of carbon prices and economy-wide leakage rates are mostly unaffected by the degree of industrial aggregation. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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