Journal
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY
Volume 170, Issue -, Pages 244-256Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.09.027
Keywords
Change-point; Degradation test; Hierarchical Bayesian; Wiener process
Funding
- China Scholarship Council [201506140046]
- Natural Science Foundation of China [11271136, 81530086]
- 111 Project [B14019]
- National Research Foundation of Korea - Ministry of Education [2015R1D1A1A01059799]
- National Research Foundation of Korea [2015R1D1A1A01059799] Funding Source: Korea Institute of Science & Technology Information (KISTI), National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS)
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In degradation test of some products such as plasma display panels (PDPs) and organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs), observed degradation paths tend to exhibit two-phase patterns over testing period. In this paper, we propose a change-point Wiener process (CPWP) model to fit the degradation paths with two-phase pattern mainly in a Bayesian framework. Considering the distinct degradation behaviors between testing units, we assume that degradation rates and change-points vary from unit to unit. Then hierarchical Bayesian approach is employed to estimate the parameters in the CPWP model. For comparison purpose, we also develop the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The results from simulation study show that the hierarchical Bayesian approach provides more robust inference on the model parameters than ML method. The analysis of OLED degradation data presents that the CPWP model outperforms three other existing models in terms of reliability prediction. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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