Journal
HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
Volume 21, Issue 5, Pages 1259-1276Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC
DOI: 10.1080/10807039.2014.955392
Keywords
climate change; agriculture; food security; multicropping; China
Categories
Funding
- China Climate Change Special Foundation of National Natural Science Foundation of China [41371110, 40921140410, 71222302]
- China Meteorological Administration [CCSF201421, CCSF201330, CCSF201110]
- National Basic Research Program of China [2012CB955701]
- IIASA YSSP Program
- China CDM Fund [1212117]
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There have been increasing concerns on risks and uncertainty posed by climate change to China's future crop production. The existing assessments using popular process-based and site-specific crop growing models highlight the significant extent of climate-induced yield reduction, and thus suggest a scary downward risk for China's future food production. Surprisingly, much less attention has been paid to exploring the potential gains that may also be brought by climate change. To address this imbalance, we develop an integrated agro-climatic and ecological assessment tool that is capable of detecting the shifts of multicropping opportunities under different climate change scenarios. The application of this tool to the context of China reveals significant extension of multicropping opportunities brought in by climate change. We argue for an active adaptation to such emerging opportunities through both market and policy incentives, because the aggregate gain of such adaptation is sufficient to outweigh the loss as revealed by the existing assessments.
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