Journal
MANCHESTER SCHOOL
Volume 81, Issue -, Pages 54-81Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/manc.12017
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Funding
- ESRC [ES/G002401/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Economic and Social Research Council [ES/G002401/1] Funding Source: researchfish
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This paper investigates the usefulness of information criteria for inference on the number of structural breaks in a standard linear regression model. In particular, we propose a modified penalty function for such criteria, which implies each break is equivalent to estimation of three individual regression coefficients. A Monte Carlo analysis compares information criteria to sequential testing, with the modified Bayesian and Hannan-Quinn criteria performing well overall, for data-generating processes both without and with breaks. The methods are also used to examine changes in Euro area monetary policy between 1971 and 2007.
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