Cylinders out of a top hat: counts-in-cells for projected densities

Large deviation statistics is implemented to predict the statistics of cosmic densities in cylinders applicable to photometric surveys. It yields few per cent accurate analytical predictions for the one-point probability distribution function (PDF) of densities in concentric or compensated cylinders; and also captures the density dependence of their angular clustering (cylinder bias). All predictions are found to be in excellent agreement with the cosmological simulation Horizon Run 4 in the quasi-linear regime where standard perturbation theory normally breaks down. These results are combined with a simple local bias model that relates dark matter and tracer densities in cylinders and validated on simulated halo catalogues. This formalism can be used to probe cosmology with existing and upcoming photometric surveys like DES, Euclid or WFIRST containing billions of galaxies.