Journal
EDUCATIONAL EVALUATION AND POLICY ANALYSIS
Volume 35, Issue 4, Pages 437-460Publisher
SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC
DOI: 10.3102/0162373713493129
Keywords
causal inference; Rubin's causal model; sensitivity analysis; observational studies
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We contribute to debate about causal inferences in educational research in two ways. First, we quantify how much bias there must be in an estimate to invalidate an inference. Second, we utilize Rubin's causal model to interpret the bias necessary to invalidate an inference in terms of sample replacement. We apply our analysis to an inference of a positive effect of Open Court Curriculum on reading achievement from a randomized experiment, and an inference of a negative effect of kindergarten retention on reading achievement from an observational study. We consider details of our framework, and then discuss how our approach informs judgment of inference relative to study design. We conclude with implications for scientific discourse.
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