Extrapolating predation mortalities back in time: an example from North-east Arctic cod cannibalism

Cannibalism is known to be a significant source of natural mortality of young North-east Arctic (NEA) cod. Cannibalism data, starting from 1984, have been used in NEA cod stock assessments since 1995, which has led to inconsistency in the cod abundance time series from 1946 to the present. To address this inconsistency, this study estimates the cannibalism-induced mortality (M2) of NEA cod at age 3-5 for the period 1946-1983. Combined qualitative and quantitative cod stomach content data for 1984-2010 were used to make the M2 estimations for age groups 3-5 (ICES 2014), then different factors including SSB were used to examine which covariates explained variability in M2 and thus make predictions for 1946-1983. The level of cannibalism was estimated to be high in the 1950s- early1960s. VPA-based assessment was run using these estimated M2 values. As a result, numbers of cod eaten by their conspecifics in the historical period and new increased recruitment estimates at age 3 were computed. The main factors affecting cannibalism appeared to be young cod abundance, total stock biomass (TSB) of large cod, and capelin total stock biomass (which represents an alternative prey). The problems involved in using the new recruitment time series in fishery management are discussed. The methodology presented here represents a generic approach to extending predation mortalities back in time to improve historical stock estimates.