Short-Term Changes in Urinary Relative Supersaturation Predict Recurrence of Kidney Stones: A Tool to Guide Preventive Measures in Urolithiasis

Purpose: Kidney stone disease is characterized by a relatively high rate of recurrence. In our study we analyzed the association between relative supersaturation and the risk of stone recurrence. Additionally, we examined the association between the risk of recurrence and changes in relative supersaturation and urinary composition after 1 week of medical treatment. Materials and Methods: We performed a post hoc analysis of data from a previously published randomized controlled trial comparing the effect of 2 diets in 120 men with recurrent calcium oxalate stones and hypercalciuria. Baseline and followup 24-hour urine parameters were used to calculate the relative supersaturation of calcium oxalate, calcium phosphate and uric acid using the EQUIL2, JESS and LithoRisk computer programs. Cox models were used to calculate the estimated association between each baseline relative supersaturation, and 1-week changes and the risk of recurrence during followup. Results: During a 5-year followup 35 patients (34%) experienced recurrence. A reduction in calcium oxalate relative supersaturation at 1 week was significantly associated with a lower risk of recurrence using the EQUIL2 calculation (for every 10% reduction from baseline HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.86-1.00, p = 0.044). However, there was no association for relative supersaturation calculated by other methods or for the relative supersaturation of other salts. Changes in the 24-hour urine excretion of citrate, potassium and magnesium were significantly associated with a risk of recurrence. Conclusions: In recurrent stone formers with hypercalciuria baseline values and changes in the relative supersaturation of calcium oxalate may be associated with the risk of recurrence. Changes in urinary citrate, potassium and magnesium following dietary intervention may also be predictive.