Journal
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
Volume 447, Issue -, Pages 126-138Publisher
ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.03.024
Keywords
Generalized reactivity; Short- and long-term instability; Cholera; Schistosomiasis; Malaria; Dengue fever; Disease control
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Funding
- Politecnico di Milano
- Politecnico di Milano through the Polisocial Award programme for schistosomiasis reasearch (project MASTR-SLS)
- Swiss National Science Foundation project Dynamics and controls of large-scale cholera outbreaks [CR23I2_138104]
- Swiss National Science Foundation project Optimal control of intervention strategies for waterborne disease epidemics [200021_172578]
- Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF) [CR23I2_138104] Funding Source: Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF)
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Determining the conditions that favor pathogen establishment in a host community is key to disease control and eradication. However, focusing on long-term dynamics alone may lead to an underestimation of the threats imposed by outbreaks triggered by short-term transient phenomena. Achieving an effective epidemiological response thus requires to look at different timescales, each of which may be endowed with specific management objectives. In this work we aim to determine epidemicity thresholds for some prototypical examples of water-borne and water-related diseases, a diverse family of infections transmitted either directly through water infested with pathogens or by vectors whose lifecycles are closely associated with water. From a technical perspective, while conditions for endemicity are determined via stability analysis, epidemicity thresholds are defined through generalized reactivity analysis, a recently proposed method that allows the study of the short-term instability properties of ecological systems. Understanding the drivers of water-borne and water-related disease dynamics over timescales that may be relevant to epidemic and/or endemic transmission is a challenge of the utmost importance, as large portions of the developing world are still struggling with the burden imposed by these infections. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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