Why do birds migrate? A macroecological perspective

AimBird migration poses a challenge to macroecology, because with one in five species moving twice yearly between breeding and non-breeding grounds, macroecological patterns in birds are dynamic rather than static. But migration is also a natural experiment for testing hypotheses about the ecological mechanisms driving species distributions. Here, we use macroecological patterns of migratory bird diversity to test whether seasonality, winter harshness and the cost of migration drive the global distribution of migratory birds. LocationGlobal. MethodsWe used data on the distribution of the world's bird species to derive global empirical patterns of: the number of breeding migrants, the number of non-breeding migrants and the difference in seasonal diversity. We built statistical models with ecologically meaningful predictors related to each of the hypotheses and investigated if they can significantly explain global empirical patterns of migratory bird diversity. We formally tested these models by training on one hemisphere (Western or Eastern) to predict the other hemisphere in turn. Model predictions were assessed in terms of match to the empirical data and their ability to predict the spatial features of patterns. ResultsWe found strong support for the hypotheses that birds move to breeding grounds to exploit a surplus in resources, preferring areas with harsh winters (presumably to avoid competition). In contrast, distribution during the non-breeding season seems driven by avoidance of harsh winters and connectivity to breeding grounds. Models integrating these hypotheses explain well the observed variance in the empirical patterns and reproduce key spatial features, even when models trained in one hemisphere are used to predict another. Main conclusionsThe strong predictive power of the models suggests that we have captured the main mechanisms that drive global patterns in bird migration. The fact that the models perform well despite being applied to species with very different ecologies suggests general mechanisms driving migration across taxa.