Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 42, Issue 10, Pages 4158-4165Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL063852
Keywords
precipitation projection; intermodel variability; SST warming pattern; North Atlantic
Categories
Funding
- National Basic Research Program of China [2012CB955602]
- NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers [U1406401]
- China Scholarship Council [201406330004]
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Intermodel variations in future precipitation projection in the North Atlantic are studied using 23 state-of-art models from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Model uncertainty in annual mean rainfall change is locally enhanced along the Gulf Stream. The moisture budget analysis reveals that much of the model uncertainty in rainfall change can be traced back to the discrepancies in surface evaporation change and transient eddy effect among models. Results of the intermodel Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis show that intermodel variations in local sea surface temperature (SST) pattern exert a strong control over the spread of rainfall projection among models through the modulation of evaporation change. The first three SVD modes explain more than 60% of the intermodel variance of rainfall projection and show distinct SST patterns with mode water-induced banded structures, reduced subpolar warming due to ocean dynamical cooling, and the Gulf Stream shift, respectively.
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