Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 42, Issue 9, Pages 3364-3370Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL063799
Keywords
thermal regimes; hydrologic regimes; El Nino; Great Lakes; evaporation; ice cover
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Funding
- NOAA through the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL)
- University of Michigan Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research (CILER)
- University of Colorado (Boulder) through Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)
- Great Lakes Restoration Initiative
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Since the late 1990s, the Laurentian Great Lakes have experienced persistent low water levels and above average over-lake evaporation rates. During the winter of 2013-2014, the lakes endured the most persistent, lowest temperatures and highest ice cover in recent history, fostering speculation that over-lake evaporation rates might decrease and that water levels might rise. To address this speculation, we examined interseasonal relationships in Lake Michigan's thermal regime. We find pronounced relationships between winter conditions and subsequent fall heat content, modest relationships with fall surface temperature, but essentially no correlation with fall evaporation rates. Our findings suggest that the extreme winter conditions of 2013-2014 may have induced a shift in Lake Michigan's thermal regime and that this shift coincides with a recent (and ongoing) rise in Great Lakes water levels. If the shift persists, it could (assuming precipitation rates remain relatively constant) represent a return to thermal and hydrologic conditions not observed on Lake Michigan in over 15years.
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