Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 42, Issue 20, Pages 8767-8774Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065854
Keywords
extreme precipitation; global climate models; climate change
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Funding
- NCAR Advanced Studies Program Postdoctoral research fellowship
- National Science Foundation
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The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree global-mean surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings and across emissions scenarios with differing composition of change in forcing. We investigate whether or not the rate of change of extreme precipitation also varies across the four emissions scenarios that force the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 multimodel ensemble. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily precipitation per degree global warming in the multimodel ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extratropical land. These results indicate that in contrast to mean precipitation, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario in most models.
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