Journal
JOURNAL OF EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING
Volume 24, Issue 5, Pages 745-773Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/13632469.2018.1453401
Keywords
Seismic Risk; Socioeconomic Loss; Transportation Disruption; Time-Variant Reliability; Probabilistic Models; Bridge; Aging; Discounting
Funding
- Sharif University of Technology [G930930]
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This paper puts forward a new methodology for time-variant seismic risk analysis of transportation networks. Risk here denotes the probability of exceeding the sum of direct loss due to repair costs of bridges in the network and indirect loss due to the reduced capacity for traffic flow. The proposed methodology employs reliability methods and a host of probabilistic models for earthquake events, damage, repair cost, downtime, and travel time, while accounting for time-varying phenomena of aging and discounting. A comprehensive application on the transportation network of Isfahan, Iran, is presented that features 64 bridges subject to seismicity from seven sources.
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