Journal
GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
Volume 203, Issue 1, Pages 366-372Publisher
OXFORD UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggv319
Keywords
Probabilistic forecasting; Probability distributions; Earthquake interaction; forecasting and prediction; Seismicity and tectonics; Statistical seismology
Categories
Funding
- JSPS [C25300052, A26240004, B26280006]
- NSFC [41274052]
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [25330052, 26240004] Funding Source: KAKEN
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The space-time Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is extended by incorporating the depth component of earthquake hypocentres. The depths of the direct offspring produced by an earthquake are assumed to be independent of the epicentre locations and to follow a beta distribution, whose shape parameter is determined by the depth of the parent event. This new model is verified by applying it to the Southern California earthquake catalogue. The results show that the new model fits data better than the original epicentre ETAS model and that it provides the potential for modelling and forecasting seismicity with higher resolutions.
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