Journal
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
Volume 31, Issue 19, Pages 7739-7749Publisher
AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0833.1
Keywords
Tropical cyclones; Climate classification; regimes; Climate variability
Categories
Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41575078, 41505035]
- Jiangsu Shuangchuang Doctoral Program
- Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD)
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This study finds a significant positive correlation between the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) index and the frequency of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the peak TC season (June-November). The PMM influences the occurrence of intense TCs mainly by modulating large-scale dynamical conditions over the main development region. During the positive PMM phase, anomalous off-equatorial heating in the eastern Pacific induces anomalous low-level westerlies (and cyclonic flow) and upper-level easterlies (and anticyclonic flow) over a large portion of the main development region through a Matsuno-Gill-type Rossby wave response. The resulting weaker vertical wind shear and larger low-level relative vorticity favor the genesis of intense TCs over the southeastern part of the WNP and their subsequent intensification over the main development region. The PMM index would therefore be a valuable predictor for the frequency of intense TCs over the WNP.
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