Causal loop modelling of residential solar and battery adoption dynamics: A case study of Queensland, Australia

Residential photovoltaic systems with battery energy storage could help accelerate the transition to a more efficient, secure and reliable electricity supply. Understanding and managing the risks associated with this complex, consumer-led transformation will be critical to minimize disruption and achieve effective integration. In this paper, we use a case study of Queensland Australia and causal loop modelling, underpinned by qualitative data sourced from extensive interviews with expert stakeholders, to consider how residential battery energy storage deployed at-scale could erode the dominance of the traditional centralized electricity supply model. With feedback loops highlighting the primacy of the consumer in coming years, our modelling suggests that a failure by incumbent utilities and policy makers to respond to consumer needs, or subvert access to battery technology, will ultimately reinforce consumer drivers for self-sufficiency and grid independence. Our analysis highlights that energy policy should address consumers' non-financial motivations for grid independence while concurrently incentivizing the strategic management of home battery energy storage to achieve beneficial whole-of-system outcomes. The development of price-based signals that assign fair-value along the supply chain could help achieve both of these objectives. Our analysis highlights the importance of taking a long-term, systems-based view of residential battery deployment to avoid negative outcomes along the supply chain and to help achieve the most efficient integration. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.