Journal
ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN DECISION PROCESSES
Volume 125, Issue 2, Pages 73-87Publisher
ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1016/j.obhdp.2014.06.003
Keywords
Risky choice; Risky choice models; Eye tracking; Process measures; Strategies; Heuristics; Adaptive decision making
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When faced with multi-outcome gambles involving possibilities of both gains and losses, people often use a simple heuristic that maximizes the overall probability of winning (Pwin). Across three different studies, using choice data as well as process data from eye tracking, we demonstrate that the Pwin heuristic is a frequently used strategy for decisions involving complex (multiple outcome) mixed gambles. Crucially, we show systematic contextual and individual differences in the use of Pwin heuristic. We discuss the implication of these findings in the context of the broader debate about single versus multiple strategies in risky choice, and the need to extend the study of risky decision making from simple to more complex gambles. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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