Future of the Main Important Forest Tree Species in Serbia from the Climate Change Perspective

Background and Purpose: Climate change is possibly the biggest 21st century challenge for the European forestry. Serbia is also under pressure, since the regions of South Europe and Mediterranean are expected to suffer the most. Main purpose of this study was to predict how distribution of several tree species in Serbia may change in the future. Materials and Methods: Our study integrates climate change scenarios for the region of Serbia together with the current distribution of forest tree species. Evaluation was performed using forest aridity index which takes into account mean temperatures and sums of precipitation of the critical months during the growing season. Distribution data of the nine most abundant tree species in Serbia (European beech, Turkey oak, Sessile oak, Hungarian oak, Pedunculate oak, Norway spruce, Silver fir, Black and Scots pine) were taken from the National Forest Inventory. Results: Significant change of bioclimatic niches is expected for the majority of the studied tree species. The most endangered will be Pedunculate oak due to the extreme change of its habitats, while drought prone species (like pines and Hungarian oak) will be less endangered. Sessile oak, Turkey oak, Silver fir, Norway spruce and European beech will be out of their 20th century bioclimatic niches before the end of 21st century according to A2 scenario. Conclusion: Our results suggest that some of the most important tree species in Serbia (Sessile oak, Turkey oak, Silver fir, Norway spruce and European beech) will be endangered by the end of 21st century. General adaption options and specific measurements for forestry sector have to be made for the region of southeast Europe due to the expected extreme change in climate.