Journal
EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
Volume 5, Issue 2, Pages 423-439Publisher
COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-5-423-2014
Keywords
-
Categories
Funding
- NOAA [NA10OAR4310248, NA09NES4400006]
- NSF [AGS-1129088]
Ask authors/readers for more resources
In the Northern Hemisphere, atmospheric CO2 concentration declines in spring and summer, and rises in fall and winter. Ground-based and aircraft-based observation records indicate that the amplitude of this seasonal cycle has increased in the past. Will this trend continue in the future? In this paper, we analyzed simulations for historical (1850-2005) and future (RCP8.5, 2006-2100) periods produced by 10 Earth system models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Our results present a model consensus that the increase of CO2 seasonal amplitude continues throughout the 21st century. Multi-model ensemble relative amplitude of detrended global mean CO2 seasonal cycle increases by 62 +/- 19% in 2081-2090, compared to 1961-1970. This amplitude increase corresponds to a 68 +/- 25% increase in net biosphere production (NBP). The results show that the increase of NBP amplitude mainly comes from enhanced ecosystem uptake during Northern Hemisphere growing season under future CO2 and temperature conditions. Separate analyses on net primary production (NPP) and respiration reveal that enhanced ecosystem carbon uptake contributes about 75% of the amplitude increase. Stimulated by higher CO2 concentration and high-latitude warming, enhanced NPP likely outcompetes increased respiration at higher temperature, resulting in a higher net uptake during the northern growing season. The zonal distribution and spatial pattern of NBP change suggest that regions north of 45 degrees N dominate the amplitude increase. Models that simulate a stronger carbon uptake also tend to show a larger increase of NBP seasonal amplitude, and the cross-model correlation is significant (R = 0.73, p < 0.05).
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available