Adequacy evaluation of electric power grids considering substation cyber vulnerabilities

Modern cyber-physical smart power grids are becoming increasingly dependent on the associated cyber networks for performing various monitoring and control functions, which inevitably leads to increased cyber vulnerabilities. It is thus a pressing task to develop effective methods for comprehensively evaluating the overall adequacy of power systems considering the probable cyber vulnerabilities. This paper is focused on quantifying the impact of substation cyber vulnerabilities on power supply adequacy. The temporal occurrence pattern of cyber attacks is statistically analyzed based on the human dynamics theory. Also, the attack/defense interactions of intelligent attackers and defenders are modeled by static and Markov games in different attack scenarios. A novel power system adequacy evaluation framework is proposed by incorporating both physical failures and cybersecurity risks. Simulation studies are performed on a typical IEEE reliability test system, and the influences of critical factors related to cybersecurity are carefully investigated. These quantitative studies show that implementing effective cyber security measures and making informed decisions about the allocation of limited resources are beneficial to enhancing the overall adequacy of contemporary cyber-physical power systems.