A Novel Markov-Based Temporal-SoC Analysis for Characterizing PEV Charging Demand

The integration of a massive number of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) into current power distribution networks brings direct challenges to network planning, control, and operation. To increase the PEV penetration level with minimal negative impact, the dynamical PEV travel behaviors and charging demand need to be better understood. This paper presents a Markov-based analytical approach for modeling PEV travel behaviors and charging demand. The travel behaviors of individual PEVs are expressed mathematically through Monte Carlo simulation considering two essential factors: temporal travel purposes and state of charge (SoC). Markov model and hidden Markov model (HMM) are adopted to explicitly formulate the probabilistic correlation between multiple PEV states and SoC ranges. This modeling approach provides an efficient and generic tool for analyzing PEV travel behaviors and charging demand based on available PEV statistics. The analytical model is further adopted in the impact assessment of two PEV normal charging scheduling strategies for a range of PEV penetration levels in an IEEE 53-bus test network with field data (network parameters and realistic PEV statistics). The results demonstrate the benefit of the proposed modeling approach in network analysis considering PEV integration.