Projections of hip arthroplasty in OECD countries up to 2050

Objective: The study aims to estimate the future demand of hip arthroplasty for OECD countries and to compare the results with earlier studies. Design: Based on data availability and validity 20 countries out of the OECD sample have been selected for projection analysis. Using historic data (1995-2012) and multiple linear regression technics a projection model was designed by an iterative process considering different explanatory variables such as health care expenditure, age groups, and projection time frames. Results: The utilisation of hip implants in OECD countries continues to grow by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.2%, leading to an increase from 1.8 million per year in 2015 to 2.8 (2.6-2.9) in the year 2050. The mean utilisation rate (incidence) of hip implants will increase from 184 (143-312) to 275 (174-457) per 100.000 total population in the same time. Australia, Ireland, Norway, Switzerland and other countries will face a significant increase of utilisation of hip implants between +95% and +120% from 2015 to 2050. Conclusions: Hip arthroplasty continues to rise significantly over the next 35 years. Therefore, some countries will face an exponential use of hip arthroplasty of additional 100% or more and thus challenges for their health care budgets. Revision burden will increase disproportionately. Thus, health technology assessment (HTA) for medical devices, longevity and quality control will become more relevant.