Journal
ENERGY ECONOMICS
Volume 47, Issue -, Pages 215-226Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.11.011
Keywords
Power network; Investments; Real options; Uncertainty; Flexibility; Monte Carlo
Categories
Ask authors/readers for more resources
Network expansions in power markets usually lead to investment decisions subject to substantial irreversibility and uncertainty. Hence, investors need valuing the flexibility to change decisions as uncertainty unfolds progressively. Real option analysis is an advanced valuation technique that enables planners to take advantage of market opportunities while preventing or mitigating losses if future conditions evolve unfavorably. In the past, many approaches for valuing real options have been developed. However, applying these methods to value transmission projects is often inappropriate as revenue cash flows are path-dependent and affected by a myriad of uncertain variables. In this work, a valuation technique based on stochastic simulation and recursive dynamic programming, called Least-Square Monte Carlo, is applied to properly value the deferral option in a transmission investment. The effect of option's maturity, the initial outlay and the capital cost upon the value of the postponement option is investigated. Finally, sensitivity analysis determines optimal decision regions to execute, postpone or reject the investment projects. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available