Possibilities and limitations of validating modelled nitrate inputs into groundwater at the macroscale using the N-2/Ar-method

Valid models for estimating nitrate emissions from agriculture to groundwater are an indispensable forecasting tool. A major challenge for model validation is the spatial and temporal inconsistency between data from groundwater monitoring points and modelled nitrate inputs into groundwater, and the fact that many existing groundwater monitoring wells cannot be used for validation. With the help of the N-2/Ar-method, groundwater monitoring wells in areas with reduced groundwater can now be used for model validation. For this purpose, 484 groundwater monitoring wells were sampled in Lower Saxony. For the first time, modelled potential nitrate concentrations in groundwater recharge (from the DENUZ model) were compared with nitrate input concentrations, which were calculated using the N-2/Ar method. The results show a good agreement between both methods for glacial outwash plains and moraine deposits. Although the nitrate degradation processes in groundwater and soil merge seamlessly in areas with a shallow groundwater table, the DENUZ model only calculates denitrification in the soil zone. The DENUZ model thus predicts 27% higher nitrate emissions into the groundwater than the N-2/Ar method in such areas. To account for high temporal and spatial variability of nitrate emissions into groundwater, a large number of groundwater monitoring points must be investigated for model validation.