China's Exported Carbon Peak: Patterns, Drivers, and Implications

Over the past decade, China has entered a new normal phase in economic development, with its role in global trade flows changing significantly. This study estimates the driving forces of Chinese export-embodied carbon emissions in the new normal phase, based on environmentally extended multiregional input-output modeling and structural decomposition analysis. We find that Chinese export-embodied CO2 emissions peaked in 2008 at a level of 1,657 million tones. The subsequent decline in CO2 emissions was mainly due to the changing structure of Chinese production. The peak in Chinese export-embodied emissions is encouraging from the perspective of global climate change mitigation, as it implies downward pressure on global CO2 emissions. However, more attention should focus on ensuring that countries that may partly replace China as major production bases increase their exports using low-carbon inputs. Plain Language Summary A large share of global CO2 emissions is produced by making goods and services that are internationally traded, to which China is the largest contributor. We find that Chinese export-embodied CO2 emissions peaked in 2008 at a level of 1,657 million tones. The peak in Chinese export-embodied emissions is encouraging from the perspective of global climate change mitigation, as it implies downward pressure on global CO2 emissions. However, more attention should focus on ensuring that countries that may partly replace China as major production bases increase their exports using low-carbon inputs.