Geoelectric Hazard Maps for the Mid-Atlantic United States: 100 Year Extreme Values and the 1989 Magnetic Storm

Maps of extreme value geoelectric field amplitude are constructed for the Mid-Atlantic United States, a region with high population density and critically important power grid infrastructure. Geoelectric field time series for the years 1983-2014 are estimated by convolving Earth surface impedances obtained from 61 magnetotelluric survey sites across the Mid-Atlantic with historical 1min (2min Nyquist) measurements of geomagnetic variation obtained from a nearby observatory. Statistical models are fitted to the maximum geoelectric amplitudes occurring during magnetic storms, and extrapolations made to estimate threshold amplitudes only exceeded, on average, once per century. For the Mid-Atlantic region, 100year geoelectric exceedance amplitudes have a range of almost 3 orders of magnitude (from 0.04V/km at a site in southern Pennsylvania to 24.29V/km at a site in central Virginia), and they have significant geographic granularity, all of which is due to site-to-site differences in magnetotelluric impedance. Maps of these 100year exceedance amplitudes resemble those of the estimated geoelectric amplitudes attained during the March 1989 magnetic storm, and, in that sense, the March 1989 storm resembles what might be loosely called a 100year event. The geoelectric hazard maps reported here stand in stark contrast with the 100year geoelectric benchmarks developed for the North American Electric Reliability Corporation.