Formation, distribution, potential and prediction of global conventional and unconventional hydrocarbon resources

Since the Neoproterozoic, two important cycles of separation and junction of the Rodinia and Pangea supercontinents controlled the formation of the Tethys, Laurasia, Gondwana and Pacifica domains, as well as the sedimentary basin types including craton, passive margin, rift, foreland, fore-arc, and back-arc basins. Sixty-eight percent of the discovered reserves are from the Tethys domain, while 49% of the undiscovered possible reserves are in passive margin basins. Six major sets of source rocks, two types of reservoirs (carbonates and clastics), and two regional seals (shale and evaporite) formed in global evolution of basins. Ten patterns are summarized from the above factors controlling the distribution of global hydrocarbon resources. (1) Conventional-unconventional hydrocarbon is accumulated orderly. (2) Distribution of Tethys controls the accumulation of the global hydrocarbons. (3) Foreland thrusting zones control the distribution of structural oil/gas fields; (4) Intra-craton uplifts control the distribution of giant oil/gas fields; (5) Platform margins control the banded distribution of giant organic reef and bank type oil/gas fields. (6) Passive margins control the distribution of giant marine oil/gas fields. (7) Foreland deep slopes control the occurrence of large scale heavy oil and bitumen. (8) Basin deposition slopes control the accumulation of tight oil & gas and coalbed methane. (9) Organic rich deep basin sediments control the retention of shale oil and gas. (10) Low temperature and high pressure seafloor sediments control the distribution of hydrate. The conventional/unconventional resources ratio is 2:8. The conventional resources are mainly distributed in the Middle East, Russia, North America, and Latin America. The unconventional resources are mainly distributed in North America, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Russia. According to the ten trends of global petroleum industry, hydrocarbon exploration is mainly focused on marine deep water, onshore deep layer, and unconventional oil & gas. The peak of oil production will probably come around 2040, and the life span of petroleum industry will last another 150 years. Renewable energy will replace fossil energy, not for the exhaustion of fossil energy, but because it is cheaper and cleaner.