A 21-Event, 4,000-Year History of Surface Ruptures in the Anza Seismic Gap, San Jacinto Fault, and Implications for Long-term Earthquake Production on a Major Plate Boundary Fault

Paleoseismic work completed at Hog Lake on the San Jacinto Fault (SJF) near Anza, California, indicates that at least 21 surface ruptures have occurred in the Anza Seismic gap over the past 4,000 years. The ages of the ruptures are constrained by 111 radiocarbon dates, 97 of which fall in stratigraphic order. The average recurrence interval for all ruptures for this period is about 185 +/- A 105 years, although some ruptures, such as occurred in the April 1918 earthquake, caused only minor displacement. We rate the expression of each interpreted event in each of the twelve developed field exposures presented in this work by assigning numeric values for the presence of different criteria that indicate rupture to a paleo-ground surface. Weakly expressed ruptures, for example the deformation we interpret to be the result of the historical 1918 earthquake, received low scores and are interpreted as smaller earthquakes. From this analysis, we infer that at least fifteen of the identified ruptures are indicative of large earthquakes similar to the penultimate earthquake, inferred to be the M (w) 7.3 22 November 1800 earthquake. The adjusted recurrence interval for large earthquakes lengthens to approximately 254 years. Comparison with the rupture history at the Mystic Lake paleoseismic site on the Claremont strand indicates that it is plausible that several of the large ruptures identified at Hog Lake could have jumped the Hemet step-over at Mystic Lake and continued on the Claremont strand (or vice versa), but most of the event ages do not match between the two sites, indicating that most ruptures do not jump the step. Finally, comparison with San Andreas Fault ruptures both to the north and south of its juncture with the SJF suggest that some northern SJF ruptures identified at Mystic Lake may correlate with events identified at Wrightwood, but that these northern ruptures have no match at Hog Lake and can not indicate rupture of the entire SJF onto the SAF.