Journal
ECONOMIC MODELLING
Volume 49, Issue -, Pages 232-247Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.04.009
Keywords
Oil prices; Global imbalances; Global VAR
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Funding
- French Energy Council (Conseil Francais de l'Energie), Paris, France [CFE76]
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The aim of this paper is to investigate oil price shocks' effects and their associated transmission channels on global imbalances. To this end, we rely on a Global VAR approach that allows us to account for trade and financial inter-dependencies between countries. Considering a sample of 30 oil-exporting and importing economies over the 1980-2011 period, we find that the nature of the shock demand-driven or supply-driven matters in understanding the effects of oil price shocks on global imbalances. In addition, we show that the main adjustment mechanism to oil shocks is based on the trade channel, the valuation channel being at play only on the short run. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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