Journal
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
Volume 100, Issue -, Pages 175-200Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.11.012
Keywords
Cellular Automata; Land-use model; Automatic calibration; Automatic parameter adjustment; Multi-objective optimisation
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Funding
- Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre
- Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre
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Modelling of land-use change plays an important role in many areas of environmental planning. However, land-use change models remain challenging to calibrate, as they contain many sensitive parameters, making the calibration process time-consuming. We present a multi-objective optimisation framework for automatic calibration of Cellular Automata land-use models with multiple dynamic land-use classes. The framework considers objectives related to locational agreement and landscape pattern structure, as well as the inherent stochasticity of land-use models. The framework was tested on the Randstad region in the Netherlands, identifying 77 model parameter sets that generated a Pareto front of optimal trade-off solutions between the objectives. A selection of these parameter sets was assessed further based on heuristic knowledge, evaluating the simulated output maps and parameter values to determine a final calibrated model. This research demonstrates that heuristic knowledge complements the evaluation of land-use models calibrated using formal optimisation methods. (c) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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