Journal
JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
Volume 34, Issue 5, Pages 405-426Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/for.2340
Keywords
consumer survey; inflation forecast; qualitative data; quantification method
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Funding
- ZEW's Heinz Konig Young Scholar Award
- National Institutes of Health/National Institute on Aging [R01AG036042]
- Illinois Department of Public Health
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We assess how well measures of disagreement in qualitative survey expectations reflect disagreement in corresponding quantitative expectations. We consider a variety of measures, belonging to two categories: measures of dispersion in nominal and ordinal variables and measures based on the probability approach of Carlson and Parkin (Economica, 1975; 42, 123-138). Using data from two household surveys that collect both qualitative and quantitative inflation expectations, we find that the probability approaches with time-varying categorization thresholds and either a piecewise uniform or t distribution perform best and the resulting disagreement estimates are highly correlated with the benchmark. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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