Social Responses to Water Management Decisions

We suggest that those involved with environmental and water resources planning and management need to consider the social responses as well as the economic and environmental impacts of our decisions. But predicting such responses now, and especially in the future, will not be possible. All we know about the future is that it will differ from the present. This includes the goals or objectives society wishes to achieve. But, in spite of this, decisions have to be made today that shape or influence the future we think we will want. What can policymakers do to better insure that a policy is able to achieve society's objectives over time? One way is to include members of society (or at least their behavior) in the policymaking process. Another way is to make the policy adaptive and include monitoring and learning so that new actions can be taken when conditions change. That is, policies should include provisions for being prepared for changes. In this paper we offer a conceptual model of a coupled social-water system, each component influencing decisions that affect the other over time. We give some examples of just how hard it is to attempt predictions, why, and what can go wrong if those predictions are wrong. And we offer some analytic approaches to policymaking that do not depend on such predictions. These approaches include the use of (1) agent-based models that simulate the behavior of individual or collective entities, (2) stakeholders who represent the social component interacting with computer models of the water systems within a decision support framework or within the framework of a smart game, or (3) dynamic adaptive policies, which rely on monitoring and adapting rather than implementing a fixed policy. All of these approaches can be used to gain insights and understanding of the coupled social and natural components of water resource systems.