Conjugated evolution of regional social-ecological system driven by land use and land cover change

The integrated study on the evolution of the regional social-ecological system (RSES) is one of many complex and classical research topics. An innovative approach of conjugate analysis is introduced to describe the RSES evolution in this paper. We select land use intensity (L), bilateral dynamic change of land use types (S), landscape pattern index (p), ecological security index (Q), and the RSES composite index (7) to describe the RSES. We analyze and express the conjugacy of the RSES evolution: for the spatial correlations, they are revealed by variance analysis, spatial autocorrelation, and regionalized variable analysis; and for the temporal correlations, they are described by the analysis of spatiotemporal correlation. We use a case study of the Hanjiang River basin in Hubei province (China) to test the conjugate evolution of the RSES. We find that the RSES evolution in this region is driven by dual-source forces, both resource driven and economic power driven. These driving forces result in the spiral rise of the RSES evolution, where L, S, Q, P, and T have high self-autocorrelations, and there are remarkable and highly positive correlations and inheritance between the RSES and their subsystems. These results can corroborate the hypothesis about conjugate evolvement of the RSES. The spatial patterns of the RSES evolution are controlled by physical factors, especially geomorphology, where as its direction is guided by human activities, and its progress is pushed forward by human-environment interactions. The analysis of the RSES conjugate evolution can provide a new perspective for the RSES management, that is, the RSES management decisions should consider conjugate effects, because these effects can directly influence regional sustainable development.