A gravity model and exploratory spatial data analysis of prefecture-scale pollutant and CO2 emissions in China

The aim of this study was to identify the spatial characteristics of CO2, industrial SO2 & dust emissions, and industrial wastewater discharge at the prefecture level in China. A gravity model and exploratory spatial data analysis were utilized in conjunction with nighttime stable light data from a remote sensing product to comprehensively investigate the spatial characteristics of emissions. Empirical analysis of this unique data set indicates that: 1) During the sample period, the center of gravity for CO2 and pollutant emissions was concentrated in cities of Henan Province, especially Shangqiu City and Xinyang City. 2) Pollutant and CO2 emissions presented statistically significant spatial autocorrelations at the prefecture level. 3) Most cities exhibited statistically insignificant spatial clustering for pollutant and CO2 emissions over the study period; however, a few cities presented positive spatial autocorrelation as the principal spatial association. This study drew some interesting observations, which will be of valuable use in policy-making and the implementation of emission reduction targets at different administrative levels.