URBAN SHOPPING PATTERNS IN INDONESIA AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR SMALL FARMERS

In developing countries, the expansion of supermarkets and other modern food retailers has raised concerns about the potential impact on traditional retailers and fruit and vegetable farmers. Will small farmers, in particular, be squeezed out of this growing, remunerative market by the quality standards imposed by supermarkets? In an attempt to answer this question, we analyse data from a stratified random sample of 1,180 urban households in Indonesia. We find that only a small share of fruits and vegetables are purchased from modern outlets, even among high-income urban households. On the basis of the relation between income and shopping patterns in our data, we project that even after 15 years of income growth, supermarkets will account for less than 40% of urban food spending. The impact of supermarket standards on small farmers may be less dramatic than has been feared.