Projecting potential future shifts in species composition of European urban plant communities

Aim: Urban floras are composed of species of different origin, both native and alien, and with various traits and niches. It is likely that these species will respond to the ongoing climate change in different ways, resulting in future species compositions with no analogues in current European cities. Our goal was to estimate potential shifts in plant species composition in European cities under different scenarios of climate change for the 21st century. Location: Europe. Methods: Potential changes in the distribution of 375 species currently growing in 60 large cities in Southern, Central and Western Europe were modelled using generalized linear models and four climate change projections for two future periods (2041-2060 and 2061-2080). These projections were based on two global climate models (CCSM4 and MIROC-ESM) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6 and 8.5). Results: Results were similar across all climate projections, suggesting that the composition of urban plant communities will change considerably due to future climate change. However, even under the most severe climate change scenario, native and alien species will respond to climate change similarly. Many currently established species will decline and others, especially annuals currently restricted to Southern Europe, will spread to northern cities. In contrast, perennial herbs, woody plants and most species with temperate continental and oceanic distribution ranges will make up a smaller proportion of future European urban plant communities in comparison with the present communities. Main conclusions: The projected 21st century climate change will lead to considerable changes in the species composition of urban floras. These changes will affect the structure and functioning of urban plant communities.