Journal
QUARTERLY REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE
Volume 58, Issue -, Pages 128-142Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2015.02.008
Keywords
Metal futures; Investor sentiment; VAR-GARCH-M; Markov regime-switching
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This paper examines the relationship between aggregate stock market sentiment and metal futures returns. Overall, metal futures have higher returns when investor sentiment is pessimistic rather than optimistic. Further analysis indicates that metal futures returns exhibit asymmetric responses to positive and negative investor sentiment shocks. Temporary and reactive demand shocks and flight to quality concerns may partially explain this asymmetry. In addition, there exists a negative predictive relationship between investor sentiment and metal futures returns, which remains persistent even after controlling for liquidity and open interest. Moreover, this predictive effect of sentiment on metal futures returns is magnified when there is high conditional volatility. (C) 2015 The Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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